First, thanks for the kind and supportive words you left in response to my last post.
After I got over my hour of poutiness, I did some research and some planning. I took the advise of one of the women in my Beginner Triathlete mentoring group, and came up with 3 sets of numbers. For each leg of the race I came up with a "best case scenario, every thing's going perfect" time, a realistic goal time, and a "safety net" time.
Here's what I'm looking at:
GOALS FOR NORTHERN COLUMBIA TRI ON 8.9.09
SWIM; 440 YARDS
best: 10:30 Minutes
Probable: 11:30 minutes
definite: 13 minutes
BIKE: 19.8 MILES
best: 1:10 (16.50 mile pace)
Probable: 1:18 (15 mile pace)
definite: 1:25 (13.8 mile pace)
RUN: 4.5 miles
best: 40:30 (11:00 min pace)
probable: 52:30 (11:40 min pace)
definite:54 minutes (12 min pace)
Of course, this is still all guess work because I've never done an official Triathlon, and I didn't factor in transition times. So, if transition times are factored into the leg times, then my times might be longer than I'm anticipating.
Next, I took a look at the results from the last few years. And, I feel a bit better about my prospects. I like this race for my first, because it's not USATF sanctioned. There are some fast competitors in the past years, but there are also several people who are more at my pace.
So, I'm feeling better now!